Time to put on the amateur pundit hat and ask that question. There’s been a lot of speculation and pessimistic predictions about the Republicans funding Obama’s amnesty and giving up the fight before it starts. So what are the Establishment Republicans going to do on amnesty, and on anything else for the next two years? That’s simple. They’re going to do anything they damn well want.
It’s not that it’s going to work out for them in the end, or conservatives either. It’s just that they have, in their minds, been wholly validated in 2014. They beat us pesky conservatives their way. They used any number of sleazy moves, monetary advantages, and dirty tricks to get themselves through their primaries, and yet in typical fashion the conservatives fell into line and voted to put them back into power. Sadder still, no small number of us knew exactly what would happen when the Republicans recaptured Congress and the Establishment remained in control, but Harry Reid!!! and all that. So if you’re one of them and still came out on top despite pulling crap like Mississippi on your own voters, what would you be thinking right now? That’s right. You’re validated and the conservatives are your noisy but cooperative vote serfs again.
So what will they do on amnesty now that they believe the big money donors who want it are the only people in need of tending? What they’re doing right now. Make some token noise and fund it, otherwise they risk a government shutdown and the crony gravy train stops that way. Then, after two years of betrayals, folding, and Boehner specials occurring in both chambers, 2016 will come along and the Presidential campaign begins. The whole “You must help us take the White House because <fill in the blank with some greater good, probably judges> or you’re a whiny non-true conservative unpatriotic whatever!” rears its ugly head and if we do what we’ve always done, we’ll make excuses and fall into line yet again.
The solution is simple. You possess exactly one thing the Establishment cannot replace and that they currently don’t have to earn, namely your vote. If they get your vote without question, they won’t do what you want and don’t have to care that you’re mad at them. If you simply stay home, they get to feed from the federal trough as the minority party and make their careers that way. The calls are just noise, registering Independent doesn’t matter because you still vote Republican, and the donations you no longer give them can be made up by groups like the Chamber of Commerce. You’re going to have to start aggressively voting to sort sides.
The Establishment has to be gone and their successors need to see that you’ll vote to remove them if they become vile enough regardless of what it takes. If the primaries aren’t enough, and they’ve gotten good at short-circuiting them, you’ll have to take it to the general election. Either vote to get rid of them, or run an actual conservative candidate as a real choice and vote for them instead of the two Democrats battling one another. The Democrats winning or losing seats makes no difference so long as the parties bear no practical distinction from one another. Sort sides, and you start getting that distinction by putting all of your political opponents on the side that isn’t yours.
Anything else is the definition of insanity, and we’re all seeing how that’s working out in record time. I’ve already used this theory on Gillespie so I’m not just hypothesizing here. Short of a better solution, the alternative is more of the same.