Obama is reassuring Democrats that positive changes will occur this year if they pass Obamacare.  I’m forced to admit he is correct insofar as causing “changes,” though nothing positive will come of it.

Let’s go through some of the things he mentions and conveniently neglects.

1. The mandate kicks in immediately.  Everyone, including those previously clueless, will suddenly find out they must now own health insurance or pay fines, enforced by the IRS.  Not only that, but if they’ve passed it by Easter, everyone gets to scramble to meet that mandate come April 15th when the income taxes are due.
2. Small business owners will receive tax credits to purchase insurance.  I’m sure that will work as well as the tax credits they received to hire employees.  The good news is that I’m also sure they’ll be happy to take those tax credits on their remaining employees after laying off more people to deal with the inevitable rate spikes (see Massachusetts for examples of inevitable rate spikes).  This presumes that despite the credit, they don’t just find it cheaper not to provide insurance at all, like they do in not hiring in spite of the tax breaks for it.
3. No denial of coverage for people with pre-existing conditions.  Yes, they’ll probably be happy about it, but outnumbered by the now-furious people who’ll be forced to subsidize them by either buying government approved health insurance or paying the fine.  Sounds great on paper, but they really should do this another way.
4. The young can avoid leaving their parents’ insurance up to their mid-20′s or so?  Makes young people happy, but infuriates their parents.  Given the turnout of the young in elections, and the fact that none of this should have happened at all, chances are good that they’ll create a much larger opposition voting block than a friendly one.  Big net loss.
5. The Medicare $500 Billion “waste, fraud, and abuse” cuts may just work, but not the way they want.  Some hospitals are refusing to take Medicare now, and the rest may just decide to eliminate its “waste, fraud, and abuse” by doing the same.  Unlike the young, the elderly vote in droves, and who will they vote for when no hospitals will accept Medicare in payment because of DEMOCRATS?
6. Medical care will begin to suffer as medical professionals leave the field because it is no longer worth their time and effort.  It may not be significant by November, but it certainly will be by 2012.
7. And the unmentioned bottom line:  This bill is a Trojan horse.  It is, by design, intended to cause social unrest and suffering in order to create a public demand for single payer and more government control.  That social unrest and suffering will begin before the November elections, just like Obama says, should this bill become law.
8. And even if they’re willing to fall on their swords despite all of this, they still must presume that all that happens is that they lose their jobs.

The Democrats need to think this one through.  They will certainly get those “immediate results,” which will become a net loss for them.  They would be well advised to kill the bill, and live to fight another day.  That, and the fact that it will be what’s right for the country.